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Cenicero vs Haro Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Cenicero
Cenicero
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
12/18/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 14Estadio de Las Viñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cenicero24%
×Draw25%
Haro Deportivo51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cenicero
1.00
Haro Deportivo
1.60

Haro Deportivo creates 60% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 81 away

creates per match

Cenicero
0.40
Haro Deportivo
0.94

allows per match

Cenicero
2.27
Haro Deportivo
1.60

finishing

Cenicero+0.00on par
Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cenicero ↓

Haro Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cenicero or draw
49%
Cenicero or Haro Deportivo
75%
Draw or Haro Deportivo
76%

Winning margin

Cenicero wins by 2+
8%
Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Cenicero 1+ goals
63%
Cenicero 2+ goals
26%
Cenicero 3+ goals
8%
Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
80%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
47%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Cenicero (draw refunded)
32%
Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cenicero at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Haro Deportivo away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cenicero attack 0.40 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.00

Haro Deportivo attack 0.94 + Cenicero defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cenicero scores more
24%
level
25%
Haro Deportivo scores more
51%

Haro Deportivo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Haro Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cenicero vs Haro Deportivo

Cenicero and Haro Deportivo drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on December 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio de Las Viñas in Cenicero.