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Harkemase Boys vs DVS 33 Ermelo — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Harkemase Boys
Harkemase Boys
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
DVS 33 Ermelo
DVS 33 Ermelo
2/28/2026Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Group A - 24Sportpark de Bosk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Harkemase Boys44%
×Draw23%
DVS 33 Ermelo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Harkemase Boys
1.72
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.46

Harkemase Boys creates 18% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 100 away

creates per match

Harkemase Boys
1.93
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.54

allows per match

Harkemase Boys
1.39
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.51

finishing

Harkemase Boys+0.00on par
DVS 33 Ermelo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harkemase Boys ↓

DVS 33 Ermelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Harkemase Boys or draw
67%
Harkemase Boys or DVS 33 Ermelo
77%
Draw or DVS 33 Ermelo
56%

Winning margin

Harkemase Boys wins by 2+
23%
DVS 33 Ermelo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Harkemase Boys 1+ goals
82%
Harkemase Boys 2+ goals
51%
Harkemase Boys 3+ goals
25%
DVS 33 Ermelo 1+ goals
77%
DVS 33 Ermelo 2+ goals
43%
DVS 33 Ermelo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Harkemase Boys (draw refunded)
57%
DVS 33 Ermelo (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harkemase Boys at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.39 · 97 matches

DVS 33 Ermelo away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harkemase Boys attack 1.93 + DVS 33 Ermelo defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.72

DVS 33 Ermelo attack 1.54 + Harkemase Boys defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Harkemase Boys scores more
44%
level
23%
DVS 33 Ermelo scores more
33%

Harkemase Boys at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Harkemase Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Harkemase Boys 2–2 DVS 33 Ermelo

Harkemase Boys and DVS 33 Ermelo drew 2-2 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on February 28, 2026.

The match was played at Sportpark de Bosk in Harkema.