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DVS 33 Ermelo vs Harkemase Boys — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

DVS 33 Ermelo
DVS 33 Ermelo
FT
1 – 1
Harkemase Boys
Harkemase Boys
9/27/2025Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Group A - 7Sportpark Zuid DVS '33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

DVS 33 Ermelo48%
×Draw23%
Harkemase Boys29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DVS 33 Ermelo
1.85
Harkemase Boys
1.38

DVS 33 Ermelo creates 34% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 98 away

creates per match

DVS 33 Ermelo
2.11
Harkemase Boys
1.68

allows per match

DVS 33 Ermelo
1.07
Harkemase Boys
1.59

finishing

DVS 33 Ermelo+0.00on par
Harkemase Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DVS 33 Ermelo ↓

Harkemase Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

DVS 33 Ermelo or draw
71%
DVS 33 Ermelo or Harkemase Boys
77%
Draw or Harkemase Boys
52%

Winning margin

DVS 33 Ermelo wins by 2+
27%
Harkemase Boys wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

DVS 33 Ermelo 1+ goals
84%
DVS 33 Ermelo 2+ goals
55%
DVS 33 Ermelo 3+ goals
28%
Harkemase Boys 1+ goals
75%
Harkemase Boys 2+ goals
40%
Harkemase Boys 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

DVS 33 Ermelo (draw refunded)
63%
Harkemase Boys (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DVS 33 Ermelo at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.07 · 98 matches

Harkemase Boys away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.59 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DVS 33 Ermelo attack 2.11 + Harkemase Boys defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.85

Harkemase Boys attack 1.68 + DVS 33 Ermelo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

DVS 33 Ermelo scores more
48%
level
23%
Harkemase Boys scores more
29%

DVS 33 Ermelo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "DVS 33 Ermelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: DVS 33 Ermelo vs Harkemase Boys

DVS 33 Ermelo and Harkemase Boys drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Zuid DVS '33 in Ermelo.