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Hard vs Fussach — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Hard
Hard
FT
3 – 3
Fussach
Fussach
7/28/2021Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 3Waldstadion Hard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Hard53%
×Draw21%
Fussach26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hard
2.16
Fussach
1.47

Hard creates 47% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 47 away

creates per match

Hard
2.19
Fussach
1.47

allows per match

Hard
1.47
Fussach
2.13

finishing

Hard+0.00on par
Fussach+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hard ↓

Fussach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Hard or draw
74%
Hard or Fussach
79%
Draw or Fussach
47%

Winning margin

Hard wins by 2+
32%
Fussach wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hard 1+ goals
88%
Hard 2+ goals
63%
Hard 3+ goals
36%
Fussach 1+ goals
77%
Fussach 2+ goals
43%
Fussach 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hard (draw refunded)
67%
Fussach (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hard at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.47 · 86 matches

Fussach away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.13 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hard attack 2.19 + Fussach defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.16

Fussach attack 1.47 + Hard defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hard scores more
53%
level
21%
Fussach scores more
26%

Hard at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hard vs Fussach

Hard and Fussach drew 3-3 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on July 28, 2021.

The match was played at Waldstadion Hard in Hard am Bodensee.