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Fussach vs Hard — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Fussach
Fussach
FT
1 – 1
Hard
Hard
3/19/2022Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 20Sportanlage Müss Fussach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Fussach47%
×Draw22%
Hard31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fussach
1.93
Hard
1.52

Fussach creates 27% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 86 away

creates per match

Fussach
1.91
Hard
1.45

allows per match

Fussach
1.59
Hard
1.95

finishing

Fussach+0.00on par
Hard+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fussach ↓

Hard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Fussach or draw
69%
Fussach or Hard
78%
Draw or Hard
53%

Winning margin

Fussach wins by 2+
26%
Hard wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fussach 1+ goals
85%
Fussach 2+ goals
57%
Fussach 3+ goals
30%
Hard 1+ goals
78%
Hard 2+ goals
45%
Hard 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Fussach (draw refunded)
61%
Hard (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fussach at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

Hard away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.95 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fussach attack 1.91 + Hard defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.93

Hard attack 1.45 + Fussach defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fussach scores more
47%
level
22%
Hard scores more
31%

Fussach at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fussach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fussach vs Hard

Fussach and Hard drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Sportanlage Müss Fussach in Fussach.