Haras El Hodood vs Pharco — Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 6+ matches
Haras El Hodood35%
Pharco31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Haras El Hodood creates 10% more chances
Season form · 10 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under76
- Over24
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No67
- Yes33
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Haras El Hodood ↓
Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Haras El Hodood at home — creates 0.76, concedes 0.84 · 10 matches
Pharco away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.01 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Haras El Hodood attack 0.76 + Pharco defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.89
Pharco attack 0.79 + Haras El Hodood defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.81
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 35%?"
Haras El Hodood at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 35% does not mean "Haras El Hodood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Zamalek SC
Pyramids FC
Al Ahly
Wadi Degla
Masr
National Bank of Egypt
El Gouna FC
Petrojet
Ceramica Cleopatra
AL Masry
Ghazl El Mehalla
El Mokawloon
Future FC
El Geish
Enppi
Al Ittihad
Kahraba Ismailia
Smouha SCHaras El HodoodPharco
Ismaily SCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Haras El Hodood host Pharco on Sunday, 16 February 2025 at 16:30. The match is part of the Premier League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Haras El Hodood vs Pharco
Haras El Hodood beat Pharco 2-0 in Premier League on February 16, 2025.
Goals: Mahmoud Mamdouh (23', 74').
Pharco controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 9.
The match was played at Haras El Hodoud Stadium in Alexandria.