Haras El Hodood 1–0 National Bank of Egypt

Haras El Hodood

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

National Bank of Egypt

A. El Sheikh 25'

8/15/2025

Premier League · Round 2Harras El Hodood Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Haras El Hodood32%

×Draw29%

National Bank of Egypt39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Haras El HodoodExpected goals in this matchNational Bank of Egypt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.17

Haras El Hodood

1.04

National Bank of Egypt

1.17

National Bank of Egypt creates 13% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 97 away

0.89

creates per match

1.14

1.20

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Haras El Hodood

0.89

National Bank of Egypt

1.14

allows per match

Haras El Hodood

1.20

National Bank of Egypt

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haras El Hodood+0.00on par

National Bank of Egypt+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haras El Hodood ↓

National Bank of Egypt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Haras El Hodood or draw

61%

Haras El Hodood or National Bank of Egypt

71%

Draw or National Bank of Egypt

68%

Winning margin

Haras El Hodood wins by 2+

12%

National Bank of Egypt wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Haras El Hodood 1+ goals

65%

Haras El Hodood 2+ goals

28%

Haras El Hodood 3+ goals

9%

National Bank of Egypt 1+ goals

69%

National Bank of Egypt 2+ goals

33%

National Bank of Egypt 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Haras El Hodood (draw refunded)

45%

National Bank of Egypt (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haras El Hodood at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches

National Bank of Egypt away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.19 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haras El Hodood attack 0.89 + National Bank of Egypt defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

National Bank of Egypt attack 1.14 + Haras El Hodood defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Haras El Hodood scores more

32%

level

29%

National Bank of Egypt scores more

39%

National Bank of Egypt at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "National Bank of Egypt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

M. Ashraf

National Bank of Egypt · F

7.6

Match Events

25'

A. El Sheikh↳ F. El Henawy

33'

39'

45+2'

45'

46'

M. Ibrahim← A. Madbouli

46'

Oufa← Y. Wahid

61'

M. El Badry← A. El Sheikh

61'

M. Bayoumi← M. Hamdi

65'

M. Gaber← E. Eze

65'

A. Rayan← M. Fathi

71'

A. Meteb← I. Yakubu

71'

Y. Annor← M. Shalaby

72'

I. Ashraf← M. El Negely

72'

A. Nail← I. Abou-Salima

81'

Mahmoud El Zanfaly

85'

Mahmoud Ouka

90+9'

Ahmed Nayel

90+6'

Mohamed Gaber

90+4'

Mohamed GaberCard upgrade

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HarasNational

Overview

32%Possession68%

9Total Shots14

3Corners7

14Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots14

3On Target5

4Off Target5

2Blocked4

3Inside Box8

6Outside Box6

Passing

32%Possession68%

235Total Passes468

145Accurate Passes381

62%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls9

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides3