Haras El Hodood vs National Bank of Egypt — Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 80+ matches
Haras El Hodood32%
National Bank of Egypt39%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
National Bank of Egypt creates 13% more chances
Season form · 80 home / 97 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under62
- Over38
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Haras El Hodood ↓
Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Haras El Hodood at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches
National Bank of Egypt away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.19 · 97 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Haras El Hodood attack 0.89 + National Bank of Egypt defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04
National Bank of Egypt attack 1.14 + Haras El Hodood defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
National Bank of Egypt at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "National Bank of Egypt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Zamalek SC
Pyramids FC
Al Ahly
Wadi Degla
MasrNational Bank of Egypt
El Gouna FC
Petrojet
Ceramica Cleopatra
AL Masry
Ghazl El Mehalla
El Mokawloon
Future FC
El Geish
Enppi
Al Ittihad
Kahraba Ismailia
Smouha SCHaras El Hodood
Pharco
Ismaily SCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Haras El Hodood host National Bank of Egypt on Tuesday, 13 May 2025 at 17:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Haras El Hodood vs National Bank of Egypt
Haras El Hodood and National Bank of Egypt drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 13, 2025.
Goals: Amr Gamal (26'), 0 Osama Faisal (45+10' pen).
National Bank of Egypt controlled possession (65%) and registered 11 shots to 5.
The match was played at Haras El Hodoud Stadium in Alexandria.