Haras El Hodood 0–0 Ceramica Cleopatra

Haras El Hodood

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ceramica Cleopatra

3/5/2023

Premier League · Round 21Haras El Hodoud Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Haras El Hodood32%

×Draw29%

Ceramica Cleopatra39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Haras El HodoodExpected goals in this matchCeramica Cleopatra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.16

Haras El Hodood

1.02

Ceramica Cleopatra

1.16

Ceramica Cleopatra creates 14% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 93 away

0.89

creates per match

1.12

1.19

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Haras El Hodood

0.89

Ceramica Cleopatra

1.12

allows per match

Haras El Hodood

1.19

Ceramica Cleopatra

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haras El Hodood+0.00on par

Ceramica Cleopatra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haras El Hodood ↓

Ceramica Cleopatra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Haras El Hodood or draw

61%

Haras El Hodood or Ceramica Cleopatra

71%

Draw or Ceramica Cleopatra

68%

Winning margin

Haras El Hodood wins by 2+

12%

Ceramica Cleopatra wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Haras El Hodood 1+ goals

64%

Haras El Hodood 2+ goals

27%

Haras El Hodood 3+ goals

8%

Ceramica Cleopatra 1+ goals

69%

Ceramica Cleopatra 2+ goals

32%

Ceramica Cleopatra 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Haras El Hodood (draw refunded)

45%

Ceramica Cleopatra (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haras El Hodood at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.19 · 79 matches

Ceramica Cleopatra away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.16 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haras El Hodood attack 0.89 + Ceramica Cleopatra defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

Ceramica Cleopatra attack 1.12 + Haras El Hodood defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Haras El Hodood scores more

32%

level

29%

Ceramica Cleopatra scores more

39%

Ceramica Cleopatra at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ceramica Cleopatra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

Mahmoud Ben Wali

53'

Ahmed Ali← O. Valentine

60'

Salah Mohsen← Ahmed Yasser Rayan

71'

Ahmed Ramadan

71'

Islam Gamal← Mostafa Sobhi

74'

Mahmoud Zalaka← Salah Mohsen

74'

G. Chukwudi← Mohamed Antar

82'

Amr Kalawa← Mohamed Toni

82'

Mohamed Metwaly Canaria← C. Wayou

90+3'

Wagih Abdel Hakim← Mostafa Zico

Statistics

HarasCeramica

Overview

5Corners3

Discipline

1Yellow Cards1