Ceramica Cleopatra 2–1 Haras El Hodood

Ceramica Cleopatra

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Haras El Hodood

Amr Kalawa 39'

Ahmed Yasser Rayan 16'

Mostafa Zico 90+5'

12/12/2022

Premier League · Round 4Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Ceramica Cleopatra47%

×Draw28%

Haras El Hodood25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ceramica CleopatraExpected goals in this matchHaras El Hodood

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.92

Ceramica Cleopatra

1.36

Haras El Hodood

0.92

Ceramica Cleopatra creates 48% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 77 away

1.33

creates per match

0.71

1.14

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Ceramica Cleopatra

1.33

Haras El Hodood

0.71

allows per match

Ceramica Cleopatra

1.14

Haras El Hodood

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ceramica Cleopatra+0.00on par

Haras El Hodood+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceramica Cleopatra ↓

Haras El Hodood →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ceramica Cleopatra or draw

75%

Ceramica Cleopatra or Haras El Hodood

72%

Draw or Haras El Hodood

53%

Winning margin

Ceramica Cleopatra wins by 2+

22%

Haras El Hodood wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ceramica Cleopatra 1+ goals

74%

Ceramica Cleopatra 2+ goals

39%

Ceramica Cleopatra 3+ goals

16%

Haras El Hodood 1+ goals

60%

Haras El Hodood 2+ goals

23%

Haras El Hodood 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ceramica Cleopatra (draw refunded)

65%

Haras El Hodood (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceramica Cleopatra at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 94 matches

Haras El Hodood away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.39 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceramica Cleopatra attack 1.33 + Haras El Hodood defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.36

Haras El Hodood attack 0.71 + Ceramica Cleopatra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ceramica Cleopatra scores more

47%

level

28%

Haras El Hodood scores more

25%

Ceramica Cleopatra at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ceramica Cleopatra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Ahmed Yasser Rayan↳ Mohamed Shokry

17'

Ibrahim El Kadi

24'

Ahmed Fathi Hamza

27'

Ahmed Dawooda← Momen Awad

39'

Amr Kalawa↳ Mohamed Metwaly Canaria

44'

Mohamed Toni

46'

Mahmoud Abou Gouda← Ahmed Felix

64'

Mohamed Ibrahim← Amr Kalawa

65'

Mahmoud Nabil← Mohamed Toni

66'

Gharib Yasser Gharib← Ahmed Dawooda

66'

Wagih Abdel Hakim← E. David

73'

Mahmoud Nabil

77'

Ahmed El Armouty← J. Ebuka

85'

Mahmoud Zalaka← Mido Gaber

85'

Abdelrahman El Banouby← Ahmed Yasser Rayan

85'

Ramzi Khaled← Ahmed Ayman

88'

Mohamed Shokry

90+4'

Mohamed Ibrahim

90+5'

Mostafa Zico↳ Mahmoud Ramadan

Statistics

CeramicaHaras

Overview

7Corners2

Discipline

4Yellow Cards2