Harare City 0–0 Bulawayo Chiefs: Result & Stats

Harare City

FT

0 – 0

Bulawayo Chiefs

5/11/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 7Rufaro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Harare City41%

×Draw31%

Bulawayo Chiefs28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harare CityExpected goals in this matchBulawayo Chiefs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.86

Harare City

1.09

Bulawayo Chiefs

0.86

Harare City creates 27% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 80 away

0.94

creates per match

0.81

0.91

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Harare City

0.94

Bulawayo Chiefs

0.81

allows per match

Harare City

0.91

Bulawayo Chiefs

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Harare City+0.00on par

Bulawayo Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harare City ↓

Bulawayo Chiefs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Harare City or draw

72%

Harare City or Bulawayo Chiefs

69%

Draw or Bulawayo Chiefs

59%

Winning margin

Harare City wins by 2+

17%

Bulawayo Chiefs wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Harare City 1+ goals

66%

Harare City 2+ goals

30%

Harare City 3+ goals

10%

Bulawayo Chiefs 1+ goals

58%

Bulawayo Chiefs 2+ goals

21%

Bulawayo Chiefs 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Harare City (draw refunded)

59%

Bulawayo Chiefs (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harare City at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.91 · 34 matches

Bulawayo Chiefs away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.24 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harare City attack 0.94 + Bulawayo Chiefs defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.09

Bulawayo Chiefs attack 0.81 + Harare City defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Harare City scores more

41%

level

31%

Bulawayo Chiefs scores more

28%

Harare City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Harare City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff