Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bulawayo Chiefs vs Harare City — Premier Soccer League 2026

Bulawayo Chiefs
Bulawayo Chiefs
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Harare City
Harare City
3/20/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 8Luveve Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Bulawayo Chiefs42%
×Draw31%
Harare City27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulawayo Chiefs
1.11
Harare City
0.84

Bulawayo Chiefs creates 32% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 34 away

creates per match

Bulawayo Chiefs
1.04
Harare City
0.79

allows per match

Bulawayo Chiefs
0.89
Harare City
1.18

finishing

Bulawayo Chiefs+0.00on par
Harare City+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulawayo Chiefs ↓

Harare City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bulawayo Chiefs or draw
73%
Bulawayo Chiefs or Harare City
69%
Draw or Harare City
58%

Winning margin

Bulawayo Chiefs wins by 2+
17%
Harare City wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bulawayo Chiefs 1+ goals
67%
Bulawayo Chiefs 2+ goals
30%
Bulawayo Chiefs 3+ goals
10%
Harare City 1+ goals
57%
Harare City 2+ goals
21%
Harare City 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bulawayo Chiefs (draw refunded)
60%
Harare City (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulawayo Chiefs at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Harare City away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.18 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulawayo Chiefs attack 1.04 + Harare City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Harare City attack 0.79 + Bulawayo Chiefs defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bulawayo Chiefs scores more
42%
level
31%
Harare City scores more
27%

Bulawayo Chiefs at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bulawayo Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bulawayo Chiefs vs Harare City

Harare City beat Bulawayo Chiefs 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Luveve Stadium in Bulawayo.