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Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Rishon LeZion — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
12/13/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 15HaShalom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm38%
×Draw28%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.23
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 129 away

creates per match

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.13
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.18

allows per match

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.13
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.33

finishing

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm+0.00on par
Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm ↓

Hapoel Rishon LeZion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm or draw
66%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm or Hapoel Rishon LeZion
72%
Draw or Hapoel Rishon LeZion
62%

Winning margin

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm wins by 2+
16%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1+ goals
71%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2+ goals
35%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3+ goals
13%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals
68%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals
32%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (draw refunded)
53%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 109 matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm attack 1.13 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.18 + Hapoel Umm al-Fahm defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm scores more
38%
level
28%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more
34%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hapoel Umm al-Fahm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 0–1 Hapoel Rishon LeZion

Hapoel Rishon LeZion beat Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1-0 in Liga Leumit on December 13, 2024.

The match was played at HaShalom Stadium in Umm al-Fahm.