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Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
3/28/2025Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 30Haberfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion41%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.34
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.14

Hapoel Rishon LeZion creates 18% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 112 away

creates per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.24
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.06

allows per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.21
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.44

finishing

Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Rishon LeZion ↓

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Rishon LeZion or draw
68%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion or Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
73%
Draw or Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
59%

Winning margin

Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+
19%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals
74%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals
39%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals
15%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1+ goals
68%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2+ goals
32%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)
57%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.21 · 131 matches

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.24 + Hapoel Umm al-Fahm defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.34

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm attack 1.06 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more
41%
level
27%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm scores more
32%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hapoel Rishon LeZion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3–1 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Hapoel Rishon LeZion beat Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3-1 in Liga Leumit on March 28, 2025.

The match was played at Haberfeld Stadium in Rishon LeZion.