Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Haifa — Ligat Ha'al 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 101+ matches
Hapoel Tel Aviv28%
Maccabi Haifa47%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Maccabi Haifa creates 38% more chances
Season form · 101 home / 127 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hapoel Tel Aviv ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hapoel Tel Aviv at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.24 · 101 matches
Maccabi Haifa away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.06 · 127 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hapoel Tel Aviv attack 1.18 + Maccabi Haifa defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.12
Maccabi Haifa attack 1.83 + Hapoel Tel Aviv defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.54
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Maccabi Haifa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Maccabi Haifa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Beitar Jerusalem
Maccabi Tel AvivHapoel Tel AvivMaccabi Haifa
Maccabi Netanya
Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Haifa
Bnei Sakhnin
Hapoel Katamon
Ashdod
Maccabi Bnei RainaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Hapoel Tel Aviv host Maccabi Haifa on Wednesday, 29 April 2026 at 16:30. The match is part of the Ligat Ha'al 2019/2020 season.
Ligat Ha'al: Hapoel Tel Aviv 4–0 Maccabi Haifa
Hapoel Tel Aviv beat Maccabi Haifa 4-0 in Ligat Ha'al on April 29, 2026.
The match was played at Bloomfield Stadium in Tel-Aviv.