Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Katamon — Ligat Ha'al 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 84+ matches
Hapoel Tel Aviv40%
Hapoel Katamon32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Hapoel Tel Aviv creates 15% more chances
Season form · 101 home / 84 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under59
- Over41
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hapoel Tel Aviv ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hapoel Tel Aviv at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.24 · 101 matches
Hapoel Katamon away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.31 · 84 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hapoel Tel Aviv attack 1.18 + Hapoel Katamon defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25
Hapoel Katamon attack 0.95 + Hapoel Tel Aviv defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.09
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Hapoel Tel Aviv at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Hapoel Tel Aviv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Beitar Jerusalem
Maccabi Tel AvivHapoel Tel Aviv
Maccabi Haifa
Maccabi Netanya
Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Haifa
Bnei SakhninHapoel Katamon
Ashdod
Maccabi Bnei RainaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Hapoel Tel Aviv host Hapoel Katamon on Friday, 13 February 2026 at 12:00. The match is part of the Ligat Ha'al 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Katamon
Hapoel Tel Aviv beat Hapoel Katamon 3-1 in Ligat Ha'al on February 13, 2026.
The match was played at Bloomfield Stadium in Tel-Aviv.