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Hapoel Katamon vs Hapoel Tel Aviv — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Hapoel Katamon
Hapoel Katamon
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Hapoel Tel Aviv
4/1/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Relegation Round - 1Teddi Malcha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Hapoel Katamon41%
×Draw28%
Hapoel Tel Aviv31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Katamon
1.27
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.08

Hapoel Katamon creates 18% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 105 away

creates per match

Hapoel Katamon
1.13
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.02

allows per match

Hapoel Katamon
1.15
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.42

finishing

Hapoel Katamon+0.00on par
Hapoel Tel Aviv+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Katamon ↓

Hapoel Tel Aviv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Katamon or draw
69%
Hapoel Katamon or Hapoel Tel Aviv
72%
Draw or Hapoel Tel Aviv
59%

Winning margin

Hapoel Katamon wins by 2+
18%
Hapoel Tel Aviv wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hapoel Katamon 1+ goals
72%
Hapoel Katamon 2+ goals
36%
Hapoel Katamon 3+ goals
14%
Hapoel Tel Aviv 1+ goals
66%
Hapoel Tel Aviv 2+ goals
29%
Hapoel Tel Aviv 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Katamon (draw refunded)
56%
Hapoel Tel Aviv (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Katamon at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.15 · 84 matches

Hapoel Tel Aviv away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.42 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Katamon attack 1.13 + Hapoel Tel Aviv defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Hapoel Tel Aviv attack 1.02 + Hapoel Katamon defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hapoel Katamon scores more
41%
level
28%
Hapoel Tel Aviv scores more
31%

Hapoel Katamon at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hapoel Katamon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Katamon vs Hapoel Tel Aviv

Hapoel Katamon beat Hapoel Tel Aviv 2-0 in Ligat Ha'al on April 1, 2024.

The match was played at Teddi Malcha Stadium in Jerusalem.