Hapoel Tel Aviv 1–1 Hapoel Hadera: Result & Stats

Hapoel Tel Aviv

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hapoel Hadera

12/9/2023

Ligat Ha'al · Round 8Bloomfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Hapoel Tel Aviv39%

×Draw28%

Hapoel Hadera33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Tel AvivExpected goals in this matchHapoel Hadera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.14

Hapoel Tel Aviv

1.25

Hapoel Hadera

1.14

Hapoel Tel Aviv creates 10% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 97 away

1.18

creates per match

1.03

1.24

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Hapoel Tel Aviv

1.18

Hapoel Hadera

1.03

allows per match

Hapoel Tel Aviv

1.24

Hapoel Hadera

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Tel Aviv+0.00on par

Hapoel Hadera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Tel Aviv ↓

Hapoel Hadera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Tel Aviv or draw

67%

Hapoel Tel Aviv or Hapoel Hadera

72%

Draw or Hapoel Hadera

61%

Winning margin

Hapoel Tel Aviv wins by 2+

17%

Hapoel Hadera wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hapoel Tel Aviv 1+ goals

71%

Hapoel Tel Aviv 2+ goals

36%

Hapoel Tel Aviv 3+ goals

13%

Hapoel Hadera 1+ goals

68%

Hapoel Hadera 2+ goals

32%

Hapoel Hadera 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Tel Aviv (draw refunded)

54%

Hapoel Hadera (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Tel Aviv at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.24 · 101 matches

Hapoel Hadera away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.31 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Tel Aviv attack 1.18 + Hapoel Hadera defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Hapoel Hadera attack 1.03 + Hapoel Tel Aviv defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hapoel Tel Aviv scores more

39%

level

28%

Hapoel Hadera scores more

33%

Hapoel Tel Aviv at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hapoel Tel Aviv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Hadera

Hapoel Tel Aviv and Hapoel Hadera drew 1-1 in Ligat Ha'al on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Bloomfield Stadium in Tel-Aviv.

Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Hadera — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Hadera