Hapoel Hadera 1–2 Hapoel Tel Aviv: Result & Stats

Hapoel Hadera

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Hapoel Tel Aviv

5/13/2023

Ligat Ha'al · Relegation Round - 7Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Hapoel Hadera35%

×Draw27%

Hapoel Tel Aviv38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel HaderaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Tel Aviv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.26

Hapoel Hadera

1.21

Hapoel Tel Aviv

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 105 away

1.00

creates per match

1.02

1.50

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Hapoel Hadera

1.00

Hapoel Tel Aviv

1.02

allows per match

Hapoel Hadera

1.50

Hapoel Tel Aviv

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Hadera+0.00on par

Hapoel Tel Aviv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Hadera ↓

Hapoel Tel Aviv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Hapoel Hadera or draw

62%

Hapoel Hadera or Hapoel Tel Aviv

73%

Draw or Hapoel Tel Aviv

65%

Winning margin

Hapoel Hadera wins by 2+

15%

Hapoel Tel Aviv wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Hapoel Hadera 1+ goals

70%

Hapoel Hadera 2+ goals

34%

Hapoel Hadera 3+ goals

12%

Hapoel Tel Aviv 1+ goals

72%

Hapoel Tel Aviv 2+ goals

36%

Hapoel Tel Aviv 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Hadera (draw refunded)

48%

Hapoel Tel Aviv (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Hadera at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 101 matches

Hapoel Tel Aviv away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.42 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Hadera attack 1.00 + Hapoel Tel Aviv defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.21

Hapoel Tel Aviv attack 1.02 + Hapoel Hadera defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hapoel Hadera scores more

35%

level

27%

Hapoel Tel Aviv scores more

38%

Hapoel Tel Aviv at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hapoel Tel Aviv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff