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Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Hapoel Petah Tikva — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Petah Tikva
10/25/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 10Haberfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion30%
×Draw29%
Hapoel Petah Tikva41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
0.99
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.21

Hapoel Petah Tikva creates 22% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 60 away

creates per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.17
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.18

allows per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.25
Hapoel Petah Tikva
0.82

finishing

Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par
Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Rishon LeZion ↓

Hapoel Petah Tikva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hapoel Rishon LeZion or draw
59%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion or Hapoel Petah Tikva
71%
Draw or Hapoel Petah Tikva
70%

Winning margin

Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+
11%
Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals
63%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals
26%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals
8%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals
70%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals
34%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)
42%
Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.25 · 116 matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.82 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.17 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.99

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.18 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more
30%
level
29%
Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more
41%

Hapoel Petah Tikva at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hapoel Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Rishon LeZion 0–2 Hapoel Petah Tikva

Hapoel Petah Tikva beat Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2-0 in Liga Leumit on October 25, 2024.

The match was played at Haberfeld Stadium in Rishon LeZion.