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Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Rishon LeZion — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Petah Tikva
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
2/21/2025Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 25HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva46%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.44
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.03

Hapoel Petah Tikva creates 40% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 114 away

creates per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.52
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.19

allows per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva
0.88
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.36

finishing

Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par
Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Petah Tikva ↓

Hapoel Rishon LeZion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hapoel Petah Tikva or draw
73%
Hapoel Petah Tikva or Hapoel Rishon LeZion
73%
Draw or Hapoel Rishon LeZion
54%

Winning margin

Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+
23%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals
76%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals
42%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals
18%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals
64%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals
28%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
63%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Petah Tikva at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.88 · 64 matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.36 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.52 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.44

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.19 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more
46%
level
27%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more
27%

Hapoel Petah Tikva at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hapoel Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Petah Tikva 3–0 Hapoel Rishon LeZion

Hapoel Petah Tikva beat Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3-0 in Liga Leumit on February 21, 2025.

The match was played at HaMoshava Stadium in Petach-Tikva.