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Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Hapoel Afula — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Afula
Hapoel Afula
10/6/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 7Haberfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion44%
×Draw26%
Hapoel Afula29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.43
Hapoel Afula
1.11

Hapoel Rishon LeZion creates 29% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 129 away

creates per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.24
Hapoel Afula
1.02

allows per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.21
Hapoel Afula
1.61

finishing

Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par
Hapoel Afula+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Rishon LeZion ↓

Hapoel Afula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Rishon LeZion or draw
71%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion or Hapoel Afula
74%
Draw or Hapoel Afula
56%

Winning margin

Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+
21%
Hapoel Afula wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals
76%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals
42%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals
17%
Hapoel Afula 1+ goals
67%
Hapoel Afula 2+ goals
30%
Hapoel Afula 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)
60%
Hapoel Afula (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.21 · 131 matches

Hapoel Afula away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.61 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.24 + Hapoel Afula defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.43

Hapoel Afula attack 1.02 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more
44%
level
26%
Hapoel Afula scores more
29%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hapoel Rishon LeZion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2–0 Hapoel Afula

Hapoel Rishon LeZion beat Hapoel Afula 2-0 in Liga Leumit on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Haberfeld Stadium in Rishon LeZion.