Hapoel Afula 2–0 Hapoel Rishon LeZion

Hapoel Afula

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

4/26/2024

Liga Leumit · Relegation Round - 2Afula Illit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Hapoel Afula37%

×Draw27%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel AfulaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Rishon LeZion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.23

Hapoel Afula

1.27

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 129 away

1.21

creates per match

1.18

1.27

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Hapoel Afula

1.21

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

1.18

allows per match

Hapoel Afula

1.27

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Afula+0.00on par

Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Afula ↓

Hapoel Rishon LeZion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Afula or draw

64%

Hapoel Afula or Hapoel Rishon LeZion

73%

Draw or Hapoel Rishon LeZion

63%

Winning margin

Hapoel Afula wins by 2+

16%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hapoel Afula 1+ goals

72%

Hapoel Afula 2+ goals

36%

Hapoel Afula 3+ goals

14%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals

71%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals

35%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Afula (draw refunded)

51%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Afula at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.27 · 132 matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Afula attack 1.21 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.18 + Hapoel Afula defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hapoel Afula scores more

37%

level

27%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more

36%

Hapoel Afula at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hapoel Afula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff