Hapoel Ramat Gan 7–0 Hapoel Ramat HaSharon

Hapoel Ramat Gan

FT

7 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon

1/16/2025

State Cup · Round of 16National Stadium Ramat Gan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hapoel Ramat Gan56%

×Draw22%

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Ramat GanExpected goals in this matchHapoel Ramat HaSharon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.17

Hapoel Ramat Gan

2.00

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon

1.17

Hapoel Ramat Gan creates 71% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.50

creates per match

0.50

1.83

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Hapoel Ramat Gan

1.50

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon

0.50

allows per match

Hapoel Ramat Gan

1.83

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Ramat Gan+0.00on par

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Ramat Gan ↓

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Hapoel Ramat Gan or draw

78%

Hapoel Ramat Gan or Hapoel Ramat HaSharon

78%

Draw or Hapoel Ramat HaSharon

44%

Winning margin

Hapoel Ramat Gan wins by 2+

33%

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hapoel Ramat Gan 1+ goals

86%

Hapoel Ramat Gan 2+ goals

59%

Hapoel Ramat Gan 3+ goals

32%

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 1+ goals

69%

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 2+ goals

33%

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Ramat Gan (draw refunded)

72%

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Ramat Gan at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Ramat Gan attack 1.50 + Hapoel Ramat HaSharon defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon attack 0.50 + Hapoel Ramat Gan defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hapoel Ramat Gan scores more

56%

level

22%

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon scores more

22%

Hapoel Ramat Gan at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hapoel Ramat Gan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff