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Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Hapoel Afula — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Ramat Gan
Hapoel Ramat Gan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Afula
Hapoel Afula
5/3/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Relegation Round - 3National Stadium Ramat Gan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Hapoel Ramat Gan49%
×Draw25%
Hapoel Afula26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.56
Hapoel Afula
1.06

Hapoel Ramat Gan creates 47% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 129 away

creates per match

Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.52
Hapoel Afula
1.02

allows per match

Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.11
Hapoel Afula
1.61

finishing

Hapoel Ramat Gan+0.00on par
Hapoel Afula+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Ramat Gan ↓

Hapoel Afula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Ramat Gan or draw
74%
Hapoel Ramat Gan or Hapoel Afula
75%
Draw or Hapoel Afula
51%

Winning margin

Hapoel Ramat Gan wins by 2+
25%
Hapoel Afula wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hapoel Ramat Gan 1+ goals
79%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 2+ goals
46%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 3+ goals
21%
Hapoel Afula 1+ goals
65%
Hapoel Afula 2+ goals
29%
Hapoel Afula 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Ramat Gan (draw refunded)
65%
Hapoel Afula (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Ramat Gan at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 130 matches

Hapoel Afula away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.61 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Ramat Gan attack 1.52 + Hapoel Afula defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56

Hapoel Afula attack 1.02 + Hapoel Ramat Gan defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hapoel Ramat Gan scores more
49%
level
25%
Hapoel Afula scores more
26%

Hapoel Ramat Gan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hapoel Ramat Gan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Hapoel Afula

Hapoel Afula beat Hapoel Ramat Gan 1-0 in Liga Leumit on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at National Stadium Ramat Gan in Ramat Gan.