Hapoel Afula 0–4 Hapoel Ramat Gan: Result & Stats

Hapoel Afula

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Hapoel Ramat Gan

9/19/2024

Liga Leumit · Round 5Afula Illit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Hapoel Afula34%

×Draw27%

Hapoel Ramat Gan39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel AfulaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Ramat Gan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.29

Hapoel Afula

1.17

Hapoel Ramat Gan

1.29

Hapoel Ramat Gan creates 10% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 129 away

1.21

creates per match

1.30

1.27

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Hapoel Afula

1.21

Hapoel Ramat Gan

1.30

allows per match

Hapoel Afula

1.27

Hapoel Ramat Gan

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Afula+0.00on par

Hapoel Ramat Gan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Afula ↓

Hapoel Ramat Gan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Hapoel Afula or draw

61%

Hapoel Afula or Hapoel Ramat Gan

73%

Draw or Hapoel Ramat Gan

66%

Winning margin

Hapoel Afula wins by 2+

14%

Hapoel Ramat Gan wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Hapoel Afula 1+ goals

69%

Hapoel Afula 2+ goals

33%

Hapoel Afula 3+ goals

11%

Hapoel Ramat Gan 1+ goals

72%

Hapoel Ramat Gan 2+ goals

37%

Hapoel Ramat Gan 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Afula (draw refunded)

46%

Hapoel Ramat Gan (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Afula at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.27 · 132 matches

Hapoel Ramat Gan away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.12 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Afula attack 1.21 + Hapoel Ramat Gan defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Hapoel Ramat Gan attack 1.30 + Hapoel Afula defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hapoel Afula scores more

34%

level

27%

Hapoel Ramat Gan scores more

39%

Hapoel Ramat Gan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hapoel Ramat Gan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff