Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Ramat Gan
Hapoel Ramat Gan
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
12/7/2021Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 14National Stadium Ramat Gan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Hapoel Ramat Gan45%
×Draw25%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.52
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
1.18

Hapoel Ramat Gan creates 29% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 41 away

creates per match

Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.54
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
1.24

allows per match

Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.12
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
1.49

finishing

Hapoel Ramat Gan+0.00on par
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Ramat Gan ↓

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hapoel Ramat Gan or draw
70%
Hapoel Ramat Gan or Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
75%
Draw or Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
55%

Winning margin

Hapoel Ramat Gan wins by 2+
22%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hapoel Ramat Gan 1+ goals
78%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 2+ goals
45%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 3+ goals
20%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 1+ goals
69%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 2+ goals
33%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Ramat Gan (draw refunded)
60%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Ramat Gan at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.12 · 115 matches

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.49 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Ramat Gan attack 1.54 + Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.52

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla attack 1.24 + Hapoel Ramat Gan defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hapoel Ramat Gan scores more
45%
level
25%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla scores more
30%

Hapoel Ramat Gan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hapoel Ramat Gan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla beat Hapoel Ramat Gan 4-0 in Liga Leumit on December 7, 2021.

The match was played at National Stadium Ramat Gan in Ramat Gan.