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Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla vs Hapoel Ramat Gan — Liga Leumit 2019

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Hapoel Ramat Gan
4/12/2021Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Promotion Round - 1Nes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla34%
×Draw26%
Hapoel Ramat Gan39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
1.25
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 114 away

creates per match

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
1.35
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.32

allows per match

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla
1.40
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.15

finishing

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla+0.00on par
Hapoel Ramat Gan+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla ↓

Hapoel Ramat Gan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla or draw
61%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla or Hapoel Ramat Gan
74%
Draw or Hapoel Ramat Gan
66%

Winning margin

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla wins by 2+
15%
Hapoel Ramat Gan wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 1+ goals
71%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 2+ goals
36%
Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 3+ goals
13%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 1+ goals
74%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 2+ goals
39%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla (draw refunded)
47%
Hapoel Ramat Gan (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.40 · 40 matches

Hapoel Ramat Gan away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.15 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla attack 1.35 + Hapoel Ramat Gan defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Hapoel Ramat Gan attack 1.32 + Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla scores more
34%
level
26%
Hapoel Ramat Gan scores more
39%

Hapoel Ramat Gan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hapoel Ramat Gan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 1–1 Hapoel Ramat Gan

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla and Hapoel Ramat Gan drew 1-1 in Liga Leumit on April 12, 2021.

The match was played at Nes Tziona Stadium in Ness Ziona.