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Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Katamon — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Petah Tikva
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Katamon
Hapoel Katamon
5/4/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Relegation Round - 5HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva37%
×Draw29%
Hapoel Katamon34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.17
Hapoel Katamon
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 84 away

creates per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.03
Hapoel Katamon
0.95

allows per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.26
Hapoel Katamon
1.31

finishing

Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par
Hapoel Katamon+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Petah Tikva ↓

Hapoel Katamon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hapoel Petah Tikva or draw
66%
Hapoel Petah Tikva or Hapoel Katamon
71%
Draw or Hapoel Katamon
63%

Winning margin

Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+
16%
Hapoel Katamon wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals
69%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals
33%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals
11%
Hapoel Katamon 1+ goals
67%
Hapoel Katamon 2+ goals
30%
Hapoel Katamon 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
52%
Hapoel Katamon (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Petah Tikva at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Hapoel Katamon away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.31 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.03 + Hapoel Katamon defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Hapoel Katamon attack 0.95 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more
37%
level
29%
Hapoel Katamon scores more
34%

Hapoel Petah Tikva at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hapoel Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Katamon

Hapoel Petah Tikva beat Hapoel Katamon 1-0 in Ligat Ha'al on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at HaMoshava Stadium in Petach-Tikva.