Hapoel Katamon 2–1 Hapoel Petah Tikva

Hapoel Katamon

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1/23/2026

Ligat Ha'al · Round 20Teddy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Hapoel Katamon46%

×Draw26%

Hapoel Petah Tikva28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel KatamonExpected goals in this matchHapoel Petah Tikva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.12

Hapoel Katamon

1.50

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.12

Hapoel Katamon creates 34% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 35 away

1.13

creates per match

1.09

1.15

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Hapoel Katamon

1.13

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.09

allows per match

Hapoel Katamon

1.15

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Katamon+0.00on par

Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Katamon ↓

Hapoel Petah Tikva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Katamon or draw

72%

Hapoel Katamon or Hapoel Petah Tikva

74%

Draw or Hapoel Petah Tikva

54%

Winning margin

Hapoel Katamon wins by 2+

23%

Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hapoel Katamon 1+ goals

78%

Hapoel Katamon 2+ goals

44%

Hapoel Katamon 3+ goals

19%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals

67%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals

31%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Katamon (draw refunded)

62%

Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Katamon at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.15 · 84 matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Katamon attack 1.13 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.50

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.09 + Hapoel Katamon defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hapoel Katamon scores more

46%

level

26%

Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more

28%

Hapoel Katamon at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hapoel Katamon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff