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Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Hadera — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Petah Tikva
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hapoel Hadera
Hapoel Hadera
2/17/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 22HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva36%
×Draw28%
Hapoel Hadera35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.17
Hapoel Hadera
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 97 away

creates per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.03
Hapoel Hadera
1.03

allows per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.26
Hapoel Hadera
1.31

finishing

Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par
Hapoel Hadera+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Petah Tikva ↓

Hapoel Hadera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Petah Tikva or draw
65%
Hapoel Petah Tikva or Hapoel Hadera
72%
Draw or Hapoel Hadera
64%

Winning margin

Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+
15%
Hapoel Hadera wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals
69%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals
33%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals
11%
Hapoel Hadera 1+ goals
68%
Hapoel Hadera 2+ goals
32%
Hapoel Hadera 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
51%
Hapoel Hadera (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Petah Tikva at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Hapoel Hadera away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.31 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.03 + Hapoel Hadera defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Hapoel Hadera attack 1.03 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more
36%
level
28%
Hapoel Hadera scores more
35%

Hapoel Petah Tikva at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Hapoel Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Hadera

Hapoel Hadera beat Hapoel Petah Tikva 2-0 in Ligat Ha'al on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at HaMoshava Stadium in Petach-Tikva.