Hapoel Hadera 1–0 Hapoel Petah Tikva

Hapoel Hadera

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hapoel Petah Tikva

12/16/2023

Ligat Ha'al · Round 9Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Hapoel Hadera40%

×Draw26%

Hapoel Petah Tikva34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel HaderaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Petah Tikva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.29

Hapoel Hadera

1.43

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.29

Hapoel Hadera creates 11% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 35 away

1.00

creates per match

1.09

1.50

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Hapoel Hadera

1.00

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.09

allows per match

Hapoel Hadera

1.50

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Hadera+0.00on par

Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Hadera ↓

Hapoel Petah Tikva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hapoel Hadera or draw

66%

Hapoel Hadera or Hapoel Petah Tikva

74%

Draw or Hapoel Petah Tikva

60%

Winning margin

Hapoel Hadera wins by 2+

19%

Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hapoel Hadera 1+ goals

76%

Hapoel Hadera 2+ goals

42%

Hapoel Hadera 3+ goals

17%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals

72%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals

37%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Hadera (draw refunded)

54%

Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Hadera at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 101 matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Hadera attack 1.00 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.09 + Hapoel Hadera defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hapoel Hadera scores more

40%

level

26%

Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more

34%

Hapoel Hadera at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hapoel Hadera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff