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Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Beer Sheva — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Petah Tikva
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Beer Shevaadvanced
4/3/2024State CupState Cup · Quarter-finalsHaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva31%
×Draw25%
Hapoel Beer Sheva44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.28
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.58

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.71
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.31

allows per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva
0.86
Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.85

finishing

Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par
Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Petah Tikva ↓

Hapoel Beer Sheva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hapoel Petah Tikva or draw
56%
Hapoel Petah Tikva or Hapoel Beer Sheva
75%
Draw or Hapoel Beer Sheva
69%

Winning margin

Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+
13%
Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals
72%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals
37%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals
14%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals
79%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals
47%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
41%
Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Petah Tikva at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva away — creates 2.31, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.71 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.28

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 2.31 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more
31%
level
25%
Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more
44%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

Hapoel Beer Sheva beat Hapoel Petah Tikva 1-0 in State Cup on April 3, 2024.

The match was played at HaMoshava Stadium in Petach-Tikva.