Hapoel Beer Sheva 1–1 Hapoel Petah Tikva

Hapoel Beer Sheva

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hapoel Petah Tikva

4/4/2026

Ligat Ha'al · Round 25Toto Turner Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva58%

×Draw22%

Hapoel Petah Tikva20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Beer ShevaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Petah Tikva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.00

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.89

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.00

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 89% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 35 away

1.92

creates per match

1.09

0.90

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.92

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.09

allows per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva

0.90

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par

Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Beer Sheva ↓

Hapoel Petah Tikva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw

80%

Hapoel Beer Sheva or Hapoel Petah Tikva

78%

Draw or Hapoel Petah Tikva

42%

Winning margin

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+

34%

Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals

85%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals

56%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals

29%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals

63%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals

26%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)

75%

Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Beer Sheva at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.90 · 126 matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.92 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.89

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.09 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more

58%

level

22%

Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more

20%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff