Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1–2 Hapoel Iksal: Result & Stats

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Hapoel Iksal

11/6/2020

Liga Leumit · Round 7Yankele Grundman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Hapoel Kfar Shalem42%

×Draw26%

Hapoel Iksal33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Kfar ShalemExpected goals in this matchHapoel Iksal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.26

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

1.46

Hapoel Iksal

1.26

Hapoel Kfar Shalem creates 16% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 42 away

1.41

creates per match

0.81

1.71

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

1.41

Hapoel Iksal

0.81

allows per match

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

1.71

Hapoel Iksal

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Kfar Shalem+0.00on par

Hapoel Iksal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kfar Shalem ↓

Hapoel Iksal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hapoel Kfar Shalem or draw

67%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem or Hapoel Iksal

74%

Draw or Hapoel Iksal

58%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kfar Shalem wins by 2+

20%

Hapoel Iksal wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1+ goals

77%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem 2+ goals

43%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem 3+ goals

18%

Hapoel Iksal 1+ goals

72%

Hapoel Iksal 2+ goals

36%

Hapoel Iksal 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kfar Shalem (draw refunded)

56%

Hapoel Iksal (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kfar Shalem at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.71 · 56 matches

Hapoel Iksal away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.50 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kfar Shalem attack 1.41 + Hapoel Iksal defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Hapoel Iksal attack 0.81 + Hapoel Kfar Shalem defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hapoel Kfar Shalem scores more

42%

level

26%

Hapoel Iksal scores more

33%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hapoel Kfar Shalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff