Hapoel Iksal vs Hapoel Kfar Shalem — Liga Leumit 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 40+ matches
Hapoel Iksal37%
Hapoel Kfar Shalem38%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 40 home / 57 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hapoel Iksal ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hapoel Iksal at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches
Hapoel Kfar Shalem away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.56 · 57 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hapoel Iksal attack 1.25 + Hapoel Kfar Shalem defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41
Hapoel Kfar Shalem attack 1.60 + Hapoel Iksal defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.45
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Hapoel Kfar Shalem at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Hapoel Kfar Shalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Maccabi Herzliya
Bnei YehudaHapoel Kfar Shalem
Kiryat Yam SC
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Hapoel Kfar Saba
Hapoel Ra'anana
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Hapoel Afula
Kafr Qasim
Hapoel Acre
Ironi Modi'in
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Hapoel HaderaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Hapoel Iksal host Hapoel Kfar Shalem on Tuesday, 16 February 2021 at 17:30. The match is part of the Liga Leumit 2019/2020 season.
Hapoel Iksal 3 – 4 Hapoel Kfar Shalem
Hapoel Kfar Shalem beat Hapoel Iksal 4-3 in Liga Leumit on February 16, 2021.
Goals: Julio Cesar (28'), Y. Avraham (37'), M. Olaha (49' pen), Z. Boris (51'), E. Seidere (56'), H. Shapso (80'), G. Elkaslasi (90+5' o.g.).
The match was played at Afula Illit Stadium in Afula.