Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1–3 Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla

12/11/2020

Liga Leumit · Round 14Ramla Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Hapoel Kfar Shalem38%

×Draw25%

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Kfar ShalemExpected goals in this matchBeitar Tel Aviv Ramla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.42

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

1.46

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 56 away

1.41

creates per match

1.14

1.71

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

1.41

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla

1.14

allows per match

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

1.71

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Kfar Shalem+0.00on par

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kfar Shalem ↓

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Hapoel Kfar Shalem or draw

63%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem or Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla

75%

Draw or Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla

62%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kfar Shalem wins by 2+

18%

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1+ goals

77%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem 2+ goals

43%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem 3+ goals

18%

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 1+ goals

76%

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 2+ goals

41%

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kfar Shalem (draw refunded)

51%

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kfar Shalem at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.71 · 56 matches

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.50 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kfar Shalem attack 1.41 + Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla attack 1.14 + Hapoel Kfar Shalem defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hapoel Kfar Shalem scores more

38%

level

25%

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla scores more

37%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hapoel Kfar Shalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff