Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 3–1 Hapoel Kfar Shalem

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

3/30/2021

Liga Leumit · Round 29Nes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla39%

×Draw24%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beitar Tel Aviv RamlaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Kfar Shalem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.47

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla

1.52

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 57 away

1.47

creates per match

1.60

1.33

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla

1.47

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

1.60

allows per match

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla

1.33

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla+0.00on par

Hapoel Kfar Shalem+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla ↓

Hapoel Kfar Shalem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla or draw

63%

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla or Hapoel Kfar Shalem

76%

Draw or Hapoel Kfar Shalem

61%

Winning margin

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla wins by 2+

19%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 1+ goals

78%

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 2+ goals

45%

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 3+ goals

20%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1+ goals

77%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem 2+ goals

43%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla (draw refunded)

51%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.33 · 55 matches

Hapoel Kfar Shalem away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.56 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla attack 1.47 + Hapoel Kfar Shalem defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.52

Hapoel Kfar Shalem attack 1.60 + Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla scores more

39%

level

24%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem scores more

37%

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff