Hapoel Kfar Shalem 2–2 Agudat Sport Ashdod

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Agudat Sport Ashdod

B. Tsega 90+2'

Y. Liberos 10'

A. Masri 58', 11'

12/19/2023

League #496 · South - 6Tel Aviv Sportek South

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hapoel Kfar Shalem48%

×Draw23%

Agudat Sport Ashdod29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Kfar ShalemExpected goals in this matchAgudat Sport Ashdod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.36

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

1.79

Agudat Sport Ashdod

1.36

Hapoel Kfar Shalem creates 32% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

2.18

creates per match

1.27

1.45

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

2.18

Agudat Sport Ashdod

1.27

allows per match

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

1.45

Agudat Sport Ashdod

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Kfar Shalem+0.00on par

Agudat Sport Ashdod+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kfar Shalem ↓

Agudat Sport Ashdod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Hapoel Kfar Shalem or draw

71%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem or Agudat Sport Ashdod

77%

Draw or Agudat Sport Ashdod

52%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kfar Shalem wins by 2+

26%

Agudat Sport Ashdod wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1+ goals

83%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem 2+ goals

53%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem 3+ goals

26%

Agudat Sport Ashdod 1+ goals

74%

Agudat Sport Ashdod 2+ goals

39%

Agudat Sport Ashdod 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kfar Shalem (draw refunded)

62%

Agudat Sport Ashdod (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kfar Shalem at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Agudat Sport Ashdod away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kfar Shalem attack 2.18 + Agudat Sport Ashdod defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.79

Agudat Sport Ashdod attack 1.27 + Hapoel Kfar Shalem defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hapoel Kfar Shalem scores more

48%

level

23%

Agudat Sport Ashdod scores more

29%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hapoel Kfar Shalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Y. Liberos

11'

A. Masri

58'

A. Masri

61'

90+2'

B. Tsega

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff