Agudat Sport Ashdod 0–2 Hapoel Kfar Shalem

Agudat Sport Ashdod

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

M. Gabra 55'

D. Sofer 30'

3/12/2024

League #496 · South - 21Ashdod Senti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Agudat Sport Ashdod30%

×Draw31%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Agudat Sport AshdodExpected goals in this matchHapoel Kfar Shalem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.06

Agudat Sport Ashdod

0.89

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

1.06

Hapoel Kfar Shalem creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

1.23

creates per match

1.27

0.85

allows per match

0.55

creates per match

Agudat Sport Ashdod

1.23

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

1.27

allows per match

Agudat Sport Ashdod

0.85

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

0.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Agudat Sport Ashdod+0.00on par

Hapoel Kfar Shalem+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Agudat Sport Ashdod ↓

Hapoel Kfar Shalem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Agudat Sport Ashdod or draw

61%

Agudat Sport Ashdod or Hapoel Kfar Shalem

69%

Draw or Hapoel Kfar Shalem

70%

Winning margin

Agudat Sport Ashdod wins by 2+

10%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Agudat Sport Ashdod 1+ goals

59%

Agudat Sport Ashdod 2+ goals

22%

Agudat Sport Ashdod 3+ goals

6%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1+ goals

65%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem 2+ goals

29%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Agudat Sport Ashdod (draw refunded)

43%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Agudat Sport Ashdod at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Hapoel Kfar Shalem away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Agudat Sport Ashdod attack 1.23 + Hapoel Kfar Shalem defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.89

Hapoel Kfar Shalem attack 1.27 + Agudat Sport Ashdod defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Agudat Sport Ashdod scores more

30%

level

31%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem scores more

39%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hapoel Kfar Shalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

D. Sofer

55'

M. Gabra

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff