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Hapoel Kaukab vs Maccabi Tzur Shalom — League #496 2026

Hapoel Kaukab
Hapoel Kaukab
FT
2 – 0
Maccabi Tzur Shalom
Maccabi Tzur Shalom
9/14/2018League #496League #496 · North - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Kaukab50%
×Draw32%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Kaukab
1.13
Maccabi Tzur Shalom
0.55

Hapoel Kaukab creates 105% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Hapoel Kaukab
1.33
Maccabi Tzur Shalom
0.77

allows per match

Hapoel Kaukab
0.33
Maccabi Tzur Shalom
0.92

finishing

Hapoel Kaukab+0.00on par
Maccabi Tzur Shalom+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kaukab ↓

Maccabi Tzur Shalom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Hapoel Kaukab or draw
82%
Hapoel Kaukab or Maccabi Tzur Shalom
68%
Draw or Maccabi Tzur Shalom
50%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kaukab wins by 2+
22%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Hapoel Kaukab 1+ goals
68%
Hapoel Kaukab 2+ goals
31%
Hapoel Kaukab 3+ goals
11%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom 1+ goals
42%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom 2+ goals
11%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kaukab (draw refunded)
74%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kaukab at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Maccabi Tzur Shalom away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kaukab attack 1.33 + Maccabi Tzur Shalom defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.13

Maccabi Tzur Shalom attack 0.77 + Hapoel Kaukab defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hapoel Kaukab scores more
50%
level
32%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom scores more
18%

Hapoel Kaukab at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hapoel Kaukab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #496: Hapoel Kaukab 2–0 Maccabi Tzur Shalom

Hapoel Kaukab beat Maccabi Tzur Shalom 2-0 in League #496 on September 14, 2018.