Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hapoel Katamon vs Hapoel Hadera — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Hapoel Katamon
Hapoel Katamon
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hapoel Hadera
Hapoel Hadera
8/31/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 2Teddi Malcha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Hapoel Katamon39%
×Draw28%
Hapoel Hadera33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Katamon
1.22
Hapoel Hadera
1.09

Hapoel Katamon creates 12% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 97 away

creates per match

Hapoel Katamon
1.13
Hapoel Hadera
1.03

allows per match

Hapoel Katamon
1.15
Hapoel Hadera
1.31

finishing

Hapoel Katamon+0.00on par
Hapoel Hadera+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Katamon ↓

Hapoel Hadera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hapoel Katamon or draw
67%
Hapoel Katamon or Hapoel Hadera
72%
Draw or Hapoel Hadera
61%

Winning margin

Hapoel Katamon wins by 2+
17%
Hapoel Hadera wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hapoel Katamon 1+ goals
70%
Hapoel Katamon 2+ goals
34%
Hapoel Katamon 3+ goals
12%
Hapoel Hadera 1+ goals
66%
Hapoel Hadera 2+ goals
30%
Hapoel Hadera 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Katamon (draw refunded)
54%
Hapoel Hadera (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Katamon at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.15 · 84 matches

Hapoel Hadera away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.31 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Katamon attack 1.13 + Hapoel Hadera defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Hapoel Hadera attack 1.03 + Hapoel Katamon defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hapoel Katamon scores more
39%
level
28%
Hapoel Hadera scores more
33%

Hapoel Katamon at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hapoel Katamon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Hapoel Katamon 1–1 Hapoel Hadera

Hapoel Katamon and Hapoel Hadera drew 1-1 in Ligat Ha'al on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Teddi Malcha Stadium in Jerusalem.