Hapoel Hadera 1–1 Hapoel Katamon: Result & Stats

Hapoel Hadera

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hapoel Katamon

12/21/2024

Ligat Ha'al · Round 15Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Hapoel Hadera34%

×Draw28%

Hapoel Katamon38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel HaderaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Katamon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.23

Hapoel Hadera

1.16

Hapoel Katamon

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 84 away

1.00

creates per match

0.95

1.50

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Hapoel Hadera

1.00

Hapoel Katamon

0.95

allows per match

Hapoel Hadera

1.50

Hapoel Katamon

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Hadera+0.00on par

Hapoel Katamon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Hadera ↓

Hapoel Katamon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Hadera or draw

62%

Hapoel Hadera or Hapoel Katamon

72%

Draw or Hapoel Katamon

66%

Winning margin

Hapoel Hadera wins by 2+

14%

Hapoel Katamon wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Hapoel Hadera 1+ goals

69%

Hapoel Hadera 2+ goals

32%

Hapoel Hadera 3+ goals

11%

Hapoel Katamon 1+ goals

71%

Hapoel Katamon 2+ goals

35%

Hapoel Katamon 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Hadera (draw refunded)

48%

Hapoel Katamon (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Hadera at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 101 matches

Hapoel Katamon away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.31 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Hadera attack 1.00 + Hapoel Katamon defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Hapoel Katamon attack 0.95 + Hapoel Hadera defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hapoel Hadera scores more

34%

level

28%

Hapoel Katamon scores more

38%

Hapoel Katamon at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hapoel Katamon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff