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Hapoel Katamon vs Beitar Jerusalem — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Hapoel Katamon
Hapoel Katamon
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Beitar Jerusalem
Beitar Jerusalem
4/12/2026Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 26Teddy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Hapoel Katamon34%
×Draw26%
Beitar Jerusalem40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Katamon
1.23
Beitar Jerusalem
1.36

Beitar Jerusalem creates 11% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 120 away

creates per match

Hapoel Katamon
1.13
Beitar Jerusalem
1.57

allows per match

Hapoel Katamon
1.15
Beitar Jerusalem
1.33

finishing

Hapoel Katamon+0.00on par
Beitar Jerusalem+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Katamon ↓

Beitar Jerusalem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Katamon or draw
60%
Hapoel Katamon or Beitar Jerusalem
74%
Draw or Beitar Jerusalem
66%

Winning margin

Hapoel Katamon wins by 2+
14%
Beitar Jerusalem wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hapoel Katamon 1+ goals
71%
Hapoel Katamon 2+ goals
35%
Hapoel Katamon 3+ goals
13%
Beitar Jerusalem 1+ goals
74%
Beitar Jerusalem 2+ goals
39%
Beitar Jerusalem 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Katamon (draw refunded)
46%
Beitar Jerusalem (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Katamon at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.15 · 84 matches

Beitar Jerusalem away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.33 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Katamon attack 1.13 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Beitar Jerusalem attack 1.57 + Hapoel Katamon defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hapoel Katamon scores more
34%
level
26%
Beitar Jerusalem scores more
40%

Beitar Jerusalem at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Beitar Jerusalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Katamon vs Beitar Jerusalem

Beitar Jerusalem beat Hapoel Katamon 2-0 in Ligat Ha'al on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at Teddy Stadium in Jerusalem.