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Beitar Jerusalem vs Hapoel Katamon — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Beitar Jerusalem
Beitar Jerusalem
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hapoel Katamon
Hapoel Katamon
12/8/2025Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 13Teddy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Beitar Jerusalem42%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Katamon31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beitar Jerusalem
1.35
Hapoel Katamon
1.11

Beitar Jerusalem creates 22% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 84 away

creates per match

Beitar Jerusalem
1.40
Hapoel Katamon
0.95

allows per match

Beitar Jerusalem
1.28
Hapoel Katamon
1.31

finishing

Beitar Jerusalem+0.00on par
Hapoel Katamon+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar Jerusalem ↓

Hapoel Katamon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Beitar Jerusalem or draw
69%
Beitar Jerusalem or Hapoel Katamon
73%
Draw or Hapoel Katamon
58%

Winning margin

Beitar Jerusalem wins by 2+
20%
Hapoel Katamon wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Beitar Jerusalem 1+ goals
74%
Beitar Jerusalem 2+ goals
39%
Beitar Jerusalem 3+ goals
15%
Hapoel Katamon 1+ goals
67%
Hapoel Katamon 2+ goals
30%
Hapoel Katamon 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Beitar Jerusalem (draw refunded)
58%
Hapoel Katamon (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beitar Jerusalem at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.28 · 120 matches

Hapoel Katamon away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.31 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beitar Jerusalem attack 1.40 + Hapoel Katamon defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Hapoel Katamon attack 0.95 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Beitar Jerusalem scores more
42%
level
27%
Hapoel Katamon scores more
31%

Beitar Jerusalem at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Beitar Jerusalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beitar Jerusalem vs Hapoel Katamon

Beitar Jerusalem and Hapoel Katamon drew 1-1 in Ligat Ha'al on December 8, 2025.

The match was played at Teddy Stadium in Jerusalem.