Hapoel Iksal 1–0 Kafr Qasim: Result & Stats

Hapoel Iksal

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kafr Qasim

P. Onyekachi 18'

11/5/2021

Liga Leumit · Round 11HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Hapoel Iksal37%

×Draw28%

Kafr Qasim34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel IksalExpected goals in this matchKafr Qasim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.13

Hapoel Iksal

1.19

Kafr Qasim

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 113 away

1.25

creates per match

0.96

1.30

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Hapoel Iksal

1.25

Kafr Qasim

0.96

allows per match

Hapoel Iksal

1.30

Kafr Qasim

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Iksal+0.00on par

Kafr Qasim+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Iksal ↓

Kafr Qasim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Iksal or draw

66%

Hapoel Iksal or Kafr Qasim

72%

Draw or Kafr Qasim

63%

Winning margin

Hapoel Iksal wins by 2+

16%

Kafr Qasim wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hapoel Iksal 1+ goals

70%

Hapoel Iksal 2+ goals

33%

Hapoel Iksal 3+ goals

12%

Kafr Qasim 1+ goals

68%

Kafr Qasim 2+ goals

31%

Kafr Qasim 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Iksal (draw refunded)

52%

Kafr Qasim (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Iksal at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

Kafr Qasim away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.13 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Iksal attack 1.25 + Kafr Qasim defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Kafr Qasim attack 0.96 + Hapoel Iksal defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hapoel Iksal scores more

37%

level

28%

Kafr Qasim scores more

34%

Hapoel Iksal at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hapoel Iksal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

24'

60'

65'

65'

65'

76'

R. Zikri← L. Nakshari

80'

I. Ndon← G. Akawa

Hapoel

Kafr

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: O. Tzalpepe

60'▲D. Twizer←▼M. Lazmi

65'▲I. Tamam←▼Y. Cohen

76'▲R. Zikri←▼L. Nakshari

Hapoel Iksal substitutes

TwizerTamamZikriRosenboimSalemBerkovicSharonLeviCohen

Manager: S. Dora

24'▲O. Amar←▼M. Sarsur

65'▲A. Hassan←▼M. Khatib

65'▲S. Dabah←▼B. Khawaz

80'▲I. Ndon←▼G. Akawa

Kafr Qasim substitutes

AmarHassanDabahNdonTahaFarijTahaNassarOzer