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Hapoel Iksal vs Kafr Qasim — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Iksal
Hapoel Iksal
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Kafr Qasim
Kafr Qasim
11/2/2020Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 6Afula Illit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Hapoel Iksal37%
×Draw28%
Kafr Qasim35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Iksal
1.19
Kafr Qasim
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 113 away

creates per match

Hapoel Iksal
1.24
Kafr Qasim
0.96

allows per match

Hapoel Iksal
1.36
Kafr Qasim
1.13

finishing

Hapoel Iksal+0.00on par
Kafr Qasim+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Iksal ↓

Kafr Qasim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Iksal or draw
65%
Hapoel Iksal or Kafr Qasim
72%
Draw or Kafr Qasim
63%

Winning margin

Hapoel Iksal wins by 2+
16%
Kafr Qasim wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hapoel Iksal 1+ goals
70%
Hapoel Iksal 2+ goals
33%
Hapoel Iksal 3+ goals
12%
Kafr Qasim 1+ goals
69%
Kafr Qasim 2+ goals
32%
Kafr Qasim 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Iksal (draw refunded)
51%
Kafr Qasim (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Iksal at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.36 · 42 matches

Kafr Qasim away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.13 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Iksal attack 1.24 + Kafr Qasim defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Kafr Qasim attack 0.96 + Hapoel Iksal defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hapoel Iksal scores more
37%
level
28%
Kafr Qasim scores more
35%

Hapoel Iksal at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hapoel Iksal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Iksal vs Kafr Qasim

Hapoel Iksal beat Kafr Qasim 2-1 in Liga Leumit on November 2, 2020.

The match was played at Afula Illit Stadium in Afula.