Hapoel Iksal 2–1 Bnei Yehuda: Result & Stats

Hapoel Iksal

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bnei Yehuda

Y. Cohen 90' (pen)

O. Rabinowitz 20'

N. Amoyal 67'

8/26/2021

Liga Leumit · Round 1HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Hapoel Iksal39%

×Draw27%

Bnei Yehuda35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel IksalExpected goals in this matchBnei Yehuda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.25

Hapoel Iksal

1.33

Bnei Yehuda

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 94 away

1.28

creates per match

1.32

1.19

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Hapoel Iksal

1.28

Bnei Yehuda

1.32

allows per match

Hapoel Iksal

1.19

Bnei Yehuda

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Iksal+0.00on par

Bnei Yehuda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Iksal ↓

Bnei Yehuda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Iksal or draw

65%

Hapoel Iksal or Bnei Yehuda

73%

Draw or Bnei Yehuda

61%

Winning margin

Hapoel Iksal wins by 2+

17%

Bnei Yehuda wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hapoel Iksal 1+ goals

74%

Hapoel Iksal 2+ goals

38%

Hapoel Iksal 3+ goals

15%

Bnei Yehuda 1+ goals

71%

Bnei Yehuda 2+ goals

36%

Bnei Yehuda 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Iksal (draw refunded)

53%

Bnei Yehuda (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Iksal at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

Bnei Yehuda away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.39 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Iksal attack 1.28 + Bnei Yehuda defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bnei Yehuda attack 1.32 + Hapoel Iksal defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hapoel Iksal scores more

39%

level

27%

Bnei Yehuda scores more

35%

Hapoel Iksal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hapoel Iksal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

O. Rabinowitz

46'

A. Rosenboim← R. Levi

62'

L. Nakshari← M. Lazmi

67'

71'

71'

71'

77'

R. Ben Shimon← Y. Abuhatzira

77'

S. Navon← Y. Abuhatzera

90+1'

O. Boaron← S. Mazor

90'

Y. CohenPenalty

Hapoel

Bnei

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: O. Tzalpepe

46'▲A. Rosenboim←▼R. Levi

62'▲L. Nakshari←▼M. Lazmi

71'▲A. Salem←▼M. Badir

71'▲Y. Asayag←▼O. Osher

71'▲Y. Cohen←▼O. Fishler

Hapoel Iksal substitutes

RosenboimNakshariSalemAsayagCohenBerkovicSharonHaspiaBelleli

Manager: Y. Abukasis

77'▲R. Ben Shimon←▼Y. Abuhatzira

77'▲S. Navon←▼Y. Abuhatzera

90+1'▲O. Boaron←▼S. Mazor

Bnei Yehuda substitutes

ShimonNavonBoaronIsakovAmsalemHakim