Bnei Yehuda 2–1 Hapoel Iksal: Result & Stats

Bnei Yehuda

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hapoel Iksal

O. Zahavi 77'

E. Atar 57'

R. Zikri 34'

12/24/2021

Liga Leumit · Round 16Bloomfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bnei Yehuda48%

×Draw26%

Hapoel Iksal26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bnei YehudaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Iksal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.05

Bnei Yehuda

1.51

Hapoel Iksal

1.05

Bnei Yehuda creates 44% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 38 away

1.47

creates per match

0.84

1.26

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Bnei Yehuda

1.47

Hapoel Iksal

0.84

allows per match

Bnei Yehuda

1.26

Hapoel Iksal

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bnei Yehuda+0.00on par

Hapoel Iksal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Yehuda ↓

Hapoel Iksal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bnei Yehuda or draw

74%

Bnei Yehuda or Hapoel Iksal

74%

Draw or Hapoel Iksal

52%

Winning margin

Bnei Yehuda wins by 2+

24%

Hapoel Iksal wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bnei Yehuda 1+ goals

78%

Bnei Yehuda 2+ goals

44%

Bnei Yehuda 3+ goals

19%

Hapoel Iksal 1+ goals

65%

Hapoel Iksal 2+ goals

28%

Hapoel Iksal 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bnei Yehuda (draw refunded)

64%

Hapoel Iksal (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bnei Yehuda at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 91 matches

Hapoel Iksal away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.55 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Yehuda attack 1.47 + Hapoel Iksal defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.51

Hapoel Iksal attack 0.84 + Bnei Yehuda defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bnei Yehuda scores more

48%

level

26%

Hapoel Iksal scores more

26%

Bnei Yehuda at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bnei Yehuda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

57'

69'

71'

77'

79'

L. Nakshari← A. Rosenboim

82'

T. Sages← R. Fadida

86'

N. Sharon← H. Izrin

90+4'

A. Kangani← E. Atar

Bnei

Hapoel

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Atar

Cohen

▼

Zaneti

Manager: Y. Abukasis

69'▲I. Zaguri←▼A. Zaneti

82'▲T. Sages←▼R. Fadida

90+4'▲A. Kangani←▼E. Atar

Bnei Yehuda substitutes

ZaguriSagesKanganiRustomHakimKhattabGradashovKadoshNavon

Manager: O. Tzalpepe

71'▲O. Osher←▼R. Zikri

79'▲L. Nakshari←▼A. Rosenboim

86'▲N. Sharon←▼H. Izrin

Hapoel Iksal substitutes

OsherNakshariSharonLazmiKorsiaDakonBelleliCohen