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Hapoel Hadera vs Maccabi Petah Tikva — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Hapoel Hadera
Hapoel Hadera
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Maccabi Petah Tikva
12/2/2023Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 6Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Hapoel Hadera38%
×Draw27%
Maccabi Petah Tikva35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Hadera
1.29
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 68 away

creates per match

Hapoel Hadera
1.00
Maccabi Petah Tikva
0.94

allows per match

Hapoel Hadera
1.50
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.57

finishing

Hapoel Hadera+0.00on par
Maccabi Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Hadera ↓

Maccabi Petah Tikva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Hadera or draw
65%
Hapoel Hadera or Maccabi Petah Tikva
73%
Draw or Maccabi Petah Tikva
62%

Winning margin

Hapoel Hadera wins by 2+
17%
Maccabi Petah Tikva wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hapoel Hadera 1+ goals
72%
Hapoel Hadera 2+ goals
37%
Hapoel Hadera 3+ goals
14%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 1+ goals
70%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 2+ goals
34%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Hadera (draw refunded)
52%
Maccabi Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Hadera at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 101 matches

Maccabi Petah Tikva away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Hadera attack 1.00 + Maccabi Petah Tikva defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Maccabi Petah Tikva attack 0.94 + Hapoel Hadera defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hapoel Hadera scores more
38%
level
27%
Maccabi Petah Tikva scores more
35%

Hapoel Hadera at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hapoel Hadera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Hadera vs Maccabi Petah Tikva

Hapoel Hadera beat Maccabi Petah Tikva 3-0 in Ligat Ha'al on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Netanya Stadium in Netanya.